China has a long history of buying cheap, disposable smartphones and replacing them with cheaper, more advanced devices.
But smart phone sales have fallen sharply in recent years.
A new report from market research firm Gartner predicts that by 2020, there will be just a 0.6% increase in the number of smart phone units sold, compared to a 0% drop in the year before.
In 2019, China shipped 6.2 million smart phones; by 2020 that number is expected to fall to 3.6 million.
“The market for smartphones in China has been declining, with the majority of the declines occurring in the last three years,” said Garter analyst Mark Schoettgen.
The report notes that China is the biggest smartphone market in the world, and it has always been the most fragmented.
In 2019, for instance, there were 4,835 smartphones in use in China, but by 2020 there were just 2,971.
Gartner estimates that by the end of 2021, China will have only about 3% of the global smartphone market.
Gizmodo has reached out to China’s Ministry of Commerce for comment on the report.
“In our view, the market for smart phone is still growing,” said Wang Yang, a vice president at the Beijing-based China Mobile Industry Association.
“The reason is the market is still saturated and the market has become more fragmented.”
Garter predicts that the smart phone market will reach its peak in 2020 at around 8.7 million units, and the global market will be between 6.7 and 7.1 million units in 2020.
The report suggests that the next step for China’s smartphone market will likely be to buy more affordable devices.
GizmoTech has reached the same conclusion, with a new report predicting that China will continue to see a steady decline in the smart phones market until the end a decade or two from now.
But that will not stop the Chinese from continuing to expand the smart smartphone market, with Garters projections indicating that China’s market will grow from 7.6 to 9.7 billion units by 2021.
As for the Chinese smartphone industry, Gartners forecasts suggest that in 2021, there is a 20% chance that China has over 100 million smartphone users.
There are many factors that could affect China’s future smartphone market growth, said Gizmodocs chief executive, Scott Gartenberg.
China has a lot of smartphone users and its smartphone market is expanding at a fast pace, but it is not as well-defined as the US market or Japan, Gartzenberg said.
For example, in the US, there are more smartphones than PCs, and that has been true for several years, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to the China market.
This article originally appeared on Gizmotech and was republished with permission.”
So I don’t think it’s that China can just turn on its smartphone and just do a quick burst of growth and then have a very small market.”
This article originally appeared on Gizmotech and was republished with permission.